¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028??

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 60.2% a fecha de 26 de octubre de 2026.

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 60.2%

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Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 18 horas

Desactualizado

1 ago 26, 16:22 UTC1 ene 29, 2:59 UTC

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Resultado24hProbabilidad

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If a large language models beats a super grandmaster (Classic elo of above 2,700) while playing blind chess by 2028, this market resolves to YES.

I will ignore fun games, at my discretion.
(Say a game where Hiraku loses to ChatGPT because he played the Bongcloud)
Some clarification (28th Mar 2023): This market grew fast with a unclear description.
My idea is to check whether a general intelligence can play chess, without being created specifically for doing so (like humans aren't chess playing machines).
Some previous comments I did.