¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the EU have another major treaty before 2035??

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 59.4% a fecha de 26 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the EU have another major treaty before 2035??

Está previsto que Will the EU have another major treaty before 2035? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2034.

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 59.4%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 22 horas

Desactualizado

2 ago 26, 17:22 UTC31 dic 34, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that the European Union agrees and signs a major new treaty before January 1st 2035.

A “major treaty” must amend, replace, or substantially supplement the EU’s primary constitutional framework, with changes comparable in significance to the Maastricht, Amsterdam, Nice, or Lisbon Treaties.
Qualifying changes may include substantial reforms to EU institutions, decision-making or voting rules, the division of powers between the EU and member states, fiscal integration, defence policy, enlargement procedures, or membership and withdrawal rules.
The treaty must have a finalized text and be formally signed by representatives of all EU member states before the deadline.
It does not need to have entered into force or completed national ratification by that date.
The following do not qualify on their own: accession or withdrawal treaties, trade agreements, ordinary legislative acts, non-binding declarations, limited technical amendments, treaties involving only a subset of EU member states, or agreements that do not materially alter the EU’s primary legal framework.