Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 56.7%
Pronosticadores
90
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado4 oct 24, 23:38 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
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PolymarketReglas
ARC‑AGI was introduced in 2019 as a grid‑based reasoning benchmark (“v1”) designed to test whether AI systems can infer novel rules from a few examples rather than rely on pattern memorization.
- Open‑source solvers plateaued near 53 % accuracy, while a high‑compute run of OpenAI’s o3‑preview model achieved roughly 75–88 %, indicating that v1 was largely saturated.
- To raise the bar, the ARC Prize Foundation unveiled the harder, human‑validated “ARC‑AGI‑2” (v2) on 24 March 2025 and opened a Kaggle contest capped at about US $0.42 of compute per task.
- The headline rule remains: the first fully open‑source system to reach ≥ 85 % on the private v2 set wins the $1 million Grand Prize.
- Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if before January 1, 2027 the ARC Prize Foundation publicly announces and awards any portion of the $1 million Grand Prize to one or more teams.
Mercados abiertos
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 57% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027??
- Está previsto que Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: ARC‑AGI was introduced in 2019 as a grid‑based reasoning benchmark (“v1”) designed to test whether AI systems can infer novel rules from a few examples rather than rely on pattern memorization.