Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 54.6%
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59
Tipo de pregunta
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado16 sept 24, 19:43 UTC31 dic 26, 22:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWill the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
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FutuurTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiReglas
https://arcprize.org/leaderboard Achieve a performance of 85% or higher on the private set of Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC), a challenging benchmark designed to test an AI's ability to solve abstract reasoning tasks with minimal prior knowledge.
- Even if the requirements for the grand prize change in 2025, this benchmark of >=85% performance will remain unchanged.
- Learn more about the competition here: https://arcprize.org/competition.
- 2025 version https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai-srb6t2awj1
- 2024 version https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 55% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026??
- Está previsto que Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: https://arcprize.org/leaderboard Achieve a performance of 85% or higher on the private set of Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC), a challenging benchmark designed to test an AI's ability to solve abstract reasoning tasks with minimal prior knowledge.