Will "Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffIA1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 81.3%
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Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado10 jul 26, 4:01 UTC1 feb 28, 0:00 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040 is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Mercados abiertos
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- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
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- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 132,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,3 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 322,4 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 resultados más
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- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
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- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will "Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 81% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will "Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Está previsto que Will "Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? se resuelva el 1 de febrero de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will "Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.