Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 71%
Pronosticadores
58
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado7 nov 22, 4:39 UTC31 dic 35, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will gay marriage be legal in every US state in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill human-AI marriage be legal in at least one country before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill any portion of Greenland become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExWill any portion of Alberta become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExWill any portion of Panama become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExReglas
They must be able to get married in that state, not just have their marriage recognized from elsewhere.
Mercados abiertos
US Politics
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase+5.0pt49.5%
- No change-4.0pt48.5%
- 25 bps decrease-0.3pt1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 5,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,6 M €
KALSHITexas Senate winner?
- James Talarico+5.0pt57%
- Ken Paxton-4.0pt43%
- Volumen total
- 11,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 623,8 mil €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party88%
- Republican Party12%
- Volumen total
- 28 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 615,3 mil €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+4.0pt58.4%
- D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt29.7%
- Republicans sweep-3.0pt10.9%
+1 resultados más
KALSHIWho will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
- Scott Jennings+2.0pt19.6%
- Anna Kelly-2.0pt16.1%
- Maria Bartiromo-14.0pt6.3%
+43 resultados más
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.1pt16%
+48 resultados más
- Florida Governor winner?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Nebraska Senate winner?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will polygamous marriage be legal in any US state by 2035??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 71% a fecha de 17 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will polygamous marriage be legal in any US state by 2035??
- Está previsto que Will polygamous marriage be legal in any US state by 2035? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2035.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will polygamous marriage be legal in any US state by 2035??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: They must be able to get married in that state, not just have their marriage recognized from elsewhere.