Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
IAOne-OffTecnología2m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 74%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado29 mar 26, 14:55 UTC15 ene 27, 0:00 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria (strict):
- Resolves YES if OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta publicly releases a model documented with context window >= 5,000,000 tokens by 2026-12-31.
- Must be an official release with public documentation or official product/API announcement.
- Rumors, leaks, unofficial benchmarks, or third-party claims do NOT count.
- If no qualifying official release appears by deadline, resolves NO.
- Primary sources: