Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualAt least 1.1 Million 69.9%Líder entre 5 opciones
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6
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
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Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado9 mar 26, 7:41 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
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Manifold MarketsReglas
People are talking about continual learning being solved effectively through brute force, by giving LLMs extremely large context windows.
- How far will this go in 2026?
- By top three AI labs, I mean Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google.
- So far the largest context window available from these companies is GPT 5.4 with a 1.05M token context, with Anthropic and Google both having models with 1M.
- Previously Google has also offered models with 2M token context (Gemini 1.5, which didn't seem to make good use of the large context window), but for this question I'll consider only models released during 2026.
- I will resolve based on the largest context windows which are publicly available, whether through API, chat, agentic coding services, etc. I won't evaluate how effectively models can actually use their advertised context windows, although I hope we get more robust benchmarks for this in general.
Mercados abiertos
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
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+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
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- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
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- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza At least 1.1 Million al 70% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026??
- Está previsto que Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: People are talking about continual learning being solved effectively through brute force, by giving LLMs extremely large context windows.