Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 60.9%
Pronosticadores
7
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado25 may 26, 17:03 UTC1 ene 28, 2:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Anthropic release a new frontier model before their IPO?
Manifold MarketsWill a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?
Manifold MarketsLargest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho IPOs first?
MyriadWill Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
PolymarketWho IPOs first?
MyriadReglas
This market resolves YES if, by Dec. 31 2027 11:59PM, any frontier LLM available to the public has the ability to include at least 10 million tokens of context.
- The model MUST be available to the public, either through non whitelisted API access or open weights.
- Just announcements wouldn't count.
- By selecting for 'frontier' i intend to exclude very small, experimental models.
- I will judge this subjectively, therefore i will not trade on this market.
Mercados abiertos
Crypto
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,3 M €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.9pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+32.5pt87%
+4 resultados más
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 3pm EDT?
- $78,200 or above99%
- $78,100 or above99%
- $75,300 or above99%
+97 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 319,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 299,2 mil €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
- 70,000+0.4pt100%
- 72,000+0.6pt100%
+8 resultados más
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 8?
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 61% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028??
- Está previsto que Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market resolves YES if, by Dec. 31 2027 11:59PM, any frontier LLM available to the public has the ability to include at least 10 million tokens of context.