Aviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 7:03 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 60.9%
Pronosticadores
7
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado25 may 26, 17:03 UTC1 ene 28, 2:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?
Manifold MarketsA top-three AI lab delays a frontier model release six months for safety reasons?
Manifold MarketsWhich bubble bursts first?
MyriadWho IPOs first?
MyriadReglas
This market resolves YES if, by Dec. 31 2027 11:59PM, any frontier LLM available to the public has the ability to include at least 10 million tokens of context.
- The model MUST be available to the public, either through non whitelisted API access or open weights.
- Just announcements wouldn't count.
- By selecting for 'frontier' i intend to exclude very small, experimental models.
- I will judge this subjectively, therefore i will not trade on this market.
