Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 71%
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado26 mar 26, 22:45 UTC2 ene 28, 7:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsReglas
See: https://www.mercor.com/blog/introducing-apex-swe/
- Resolution Criteria
- APEX-SWE is a benchmark for assessing whether frontier AI models can execute economically valuable software engineering work.
- The market resolves YES when any frontier AI model achieves a Pass@1 score of 90% or higher on the APEX-SWE benchmark.
- Resolution will be verified through official APEX-SWE leaderboard results published at https://www.mercor.com/apex/ or peer-reviewed publications documenting the result.
- APEX-SWE assesses two novel task types that reflect real-world software engineering work: Integration tasks, which require constructing end-to-end systems across heterogeneous cloud primitives, business applications, and infrastructure-as-code services, and Observability tasks, which require debugging production failures using telemetry signals such as logs and dashboards, as well as unstructured context.
Mercados abiertos
AI
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 71% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028??
- Está previsto que Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: See: https://www.mercor.com/blog/introducing-apex-swe/