Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 81.6%
Pronosticadores
30
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado16 ene 24, 21:05 UTC17 dic 00, 21:40 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will humanity go extinct before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?
Manifold MarketsDid most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation?
Manifold MarketsWill the Dodo bird be de-extinct by the end of 2028?
FutuurExtinct mammoth hybrids to be born alive by the end of 2027?
FutuurWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiReglas
In 2020, Toby Ord estimates existential risk in the next century at "1 in 6" in his book The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity.
- He also estimated a "1 in 10" risk of extinction by unaligned AI within the next century.
Mercados abiertos
Science
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.3pt4%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 58,5 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 460,9 mil €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt21%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 20276%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 29,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+6.0pt86%
- Yes-6.0pt14%
- Volumen total
- 20,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,4 mil €
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030+0.1pt71%
- Before 2029+0.1pt30%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 257,2 mil €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0-8.0pt31%
- Above 1-2.0pt13%
- Above 2-4.0pt6%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+1.0pt51%
- Before 203247%
- Before 203030%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 118,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 2,1 mil €
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Humans go extinct by 2200??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 82% a fecha de 15 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Humans go extinct by 2200??
- Está previsto que Will Humans go extinct by 2200? se resuelva el 17 de diciembre de 2200.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Humans go extinct by 2200??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: In 2020, Toby Ord estimates existential risk in the next century at "1 in 6" in his book The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity.