"Will Google DeepMind release a system where the AI itself (not human engineers) generates improvements to its own code
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Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 97.4%
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Actualizado hace 18 horas
Desactualizado5 nov 25, 21:15 UTC15 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Will Google DeepMind publicly release or announce a recursive self-improvement (RSI) capable AI system before January 1, 2026?
- Context: Recent developments show major AI labs racing toward RSI capabilities.
- In May 2025, Google DeepMind unveiled AlphaEvolve, an evolutionary coding agent using LLMs to design and optimize algorithms.
- Meta has established a superintelligence research team with massive infrastructure investments.
- The field is treating RSI as a critical milestone toward AGI.
- Resolution: Market resolves YES if Google DeepMind publicly announces or releases a system explicitly capable of recursive self-improvement (autonomously optimizing its own algorithms/architecture) before January 1, 2026.