Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 95.2%
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado13 abr 26, 9:04 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky have a debate for >$10k before EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Examples that would resolve this market to "yes":
- An announcement by either Eliezer or Anthropic that he is involved in their research in some capacity.
- A paper is released co-authored by Eliezer and Anthropic.
- Eliezer joins Anthropic as an advisor or member of staff.
- Other ambiguous cases will be judged by me.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be collaborating with Anthropic by EOY 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 95% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be collaborating with Anthropic by EOY 2027??
- Está previsto que Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be collaborating with Anthropic by EOY 2027? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be collaborating with Anthropic by EOY 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Examples that would resolve this market to "yes":