Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
One-OffIA1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 87.5%
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94
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
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Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado14 may 23, 7:54 UTC2 ene 28, 12:30 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text.
- I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases.
- P(doom|something else) is not P(doom).
- He must explicitly specify a number that is less than 97 or that his number is less than 97 for this market to resolve YES.
