Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027?
One-OffIA3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 86.1%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado15 jul 25, 23:27 UTC1 ene 27, 23:59 UTC
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In a July 2025 post titled 'Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically', Gary Marcus wrote:
- My p(doom) is still lower than most industry people’s.
- I am at maybe 3% now, much higher than a month ago
- This question will concern any future updates of a similar kind that Gary Marcus may publicly make.
- If he suggests in public that his p(doom) has risen further to some figure at or above 10% before 2027, this market will resolve YES.
- Otherwise the market will resolve NO.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 86% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027??
- Está previsto que Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: In a July 2025 post titled 'Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically', Gary Marcus wrote: