Will direct passenger ferry service between mainland Taiwan and mainland China resume by end of 2026?”
ChinaOne-Off3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 91.8%
Pronosticadores
10
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado5 abr 26, 20:44 UTC30 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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The only direct ferry link between Taiwan proper and mainland China was the Pingtan-Taichung/Taipei service, running from 2011 until COVID suspension in February 2020.
- It has not resumed since.
- The Mini Three Links ferries (Kinmen/Matsu to Fujian) do not count for this question.
- In April 2026, KMT chair Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) is visiting China for talks with Chinese leadership, raising the question of whether any tangible cross-strait concessions will follow.
- Resolves YES if any direct passenger ferry between a port on Taiwan proper and a port on mainland China completes at least one sailing before January 1, 2027, with approval from Taiwan’s government.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will direct passenger ferry service between mainland Taiwan and mainland China resume by end of 2026?”?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 92% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will direct passenger ferry service between mainland Taiwan and mainland China resume by end of 2026?”?
- Está previsto que Will direct passenger ferry service between mainland Taiwan and mainland China resume by end of 2026?” se resuelva el 30 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will direct passenger ferry service between mainland Taiwan and mainland China resume by end of 2026?”?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The only direct ferry link between Taiwan proper and mainland China was the Pingtan-Taichung/Taipei service, running from 2011 until COVID suspension in February 2020.