Will Daniel Ortega lose power in 2026?
One-OffPolíticaPolítica de EE. UU.ElecciónGeopolíticaAmérica LatinaCrimen y justicia2mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 90%
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado21 jul 26, 17:26 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point on or before December 31, 2026 (11:59 PM UTC), Daniel Ortega ceases to be the President (or Co-President/head of state) of Nicaragua, or otherwise definitively loses de facto power.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- To resolve to YES, one of the following events must occur and be confirmed by credible international media outlets (such as Reuters, the Associated Press, or BBC) on or before the December 31, 2026 deadline:
- Official Removal or Resignation: Daniel Ortega officially resigns, is removed, or is otherwise replaced as President/head of state.
- Death or Permanent Incapacitation: Daniel Ortega is officially declared deceased or permanently incapacitated, resulting in a successor (such as Co-President Rosario Murillo) officially assuming the presidency.
