Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualYes, by 2100 62.1%
Pronosticadores
10
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado9 sept 26, 12:27 UTC31 dic 99, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Chatgpt-type chatbots become permanent in our lives permanently before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Chatgpt-type chatbots become extinct before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill AI chatbots become permanent part of daily life permanently like smartphones and the internet before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Generative AI become permanent part of our daily lives before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Daylight Saving Time become permanent?
KalshiWill Daylight Savings Time become permanent in the US in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2100, a major, reputable public polling or research organization (e.g., Pew Research Center, Gallup, or a comparable national statistical/census agency) publishes a survey indicating that 50% or more of surveyed adults in the United States (or a globally representative sample) use generative AI chatbots or LLM-based conversational assistants (e.g., ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, or their direct technological successors) on a daily basis (or "almost every day").
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO on January 1, 2100.
- Resolution Notes:
- If the specified polling organizations (Pew, Gallup) cease to exist before the threshold is met, comparable academic studies from major research institutions (e.g., MIT, Stanford) or official government census data will be used.
- If no definitive public polling data is available in the final years leading up to 2100, the market may be resolved using the best available historical data and a consensus poll of platform users at that time.