Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 85%
Pronosticadores
37
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 49 minutos
Retrasado31 dic 23, 15:39 UTC9 dic 34, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiTop AI model in September?
KalshiReglas
By ‘superhuman’, we mean: twice as capable of persuading a person of something than the best human.
- ‘Twice as capable’ means twice as fast, or in half the interactions.
- Or, can persuade twice as many people from a pool than the best human can.
- Determination will, I imagine, be obvious.
- If it is not, then a determination process will be built at that point.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
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- 135,2 mil €
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- 102,7 mil €
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- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
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- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
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- 325 mil €
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- 1480+-2.5pt66%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 85% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.?
- Está previsto que Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034. se resuelva el 9 de diciembre de 2034.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: By ‘superhuman’, we mean: twice as capable of persuading a person of something than the best human.