Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 86.4%
Pronosticadores
30
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado30 sept 23, 9:38 UTC2 ene 30, 7:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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This resolves to YES if I'm provided with credible video evidence of a robot controlled by an AI intentionally wiping the word "humanity" off of a whiteboard, chalkboard, or other wipeable writing surface.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 86% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030??
- Está previsto que Will AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This resolves to YES if I'm provided with credible video evidence of a robot controlled by an AI intentionally wiping the word "humanity" off of a whiteboard, chalkboard, or other wipeable writing surface.