Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 89.8%
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76
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado6 abr 24, 16:47 UTC2 ene 30, 5:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
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KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Resolves YES if, by January 1st, 2030, there exists widely available technology that uses AI for the purpose of cleaning humans' anuses after defecation.
- This does not strictly have to be done by "wiping"; for example, a bidet-like technology would work, as long as it involves a technology widely agreed to be AI.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
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KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
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- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will AI wipe humanity by 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 90% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will AI wipe humanity by 2030??
- Está previsto que Will AI wipe humanity by 2030? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will AI wipe humanity by 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if, by January 1st, 2030, there exists widely available technology that uses AI for the purpose of cleaning humans' anuses after defecation.