Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 83.8%
Pronosticadores
36
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado14 ago 23, 20:31 UTC1 ene 30, 5:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI wipe humanity by 2030?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Resolves YES if an AI participates in a competition primarily involving wiping such as a window-wiping or mopping competition, and beats all human opponents.
- There must be at least one human opponent for it to count.
- The competition must have some degree of officialness to it, like an organization putting on the competition. "I held a competition in my basement, and the AI won" doesn't count.
- I will use my best judgement to determine if a competition is "official" (I may make the criteria for officialness more precise based on suggestions in the comments).
- If I can't find any example of an AI winning a competition like this by 2030, resolves NO.
- If an AI has already won a competition like this, that counts for a YES resolution, too.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 84% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030??
- Está previsto que Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if an AI participates in a competition primarily involving wiping such as a window-wiping or mopping competition, and beats all human opponents.