Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 86.8%
Pronosticadores
21
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 minutos
24 feb 26, 14:28 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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PolymarketReglas
This market resolves YES if the following statement is true:
- For a typical nontrivial open mathematical conjecture stated within the standard axioms of mathematics, the probability that a publicly available AI system solves the conjecture autonomously within a fixed time horizon is greater than the probability that a human mathematician solves it within the same time horizon without assistance from AI.
- Resolution will be based on my judgment.
- I am a PhD student in mathematics.
- I will not place any bets in this market, as the resolution depends on my own judgment.
- Clarifications
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
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- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 87% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030??
- Está previsto que Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market resolves YES if the following statement is true: