Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual2028 20.2%Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
5
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+0.7 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado22 nov 25, 20:48 UTC22 nov 30, 20:46 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiReglas
Resolve when someone demonstrates that a very hard-to-recognize image recognition CAPTCHA (one that humans can barely recognize) can nevertheless be consistently recognized by a freely available LLM.
- Update 2025-11-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve when AI can solve any image recognition CAPTCHA better than humans, where "very hard to recognize" means designed to be hard for machines to recognize (not just arbitrary tasks that happen to be easier for LLMs than humans).
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will AI be better at Captcha than an average human?
- Manifold Markets cotiza 2028 al 20% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will AI be better at Captcha than an average human?
- Está previsto que When will AI be better at Captcha than an average human se resuelva el 22 de noviembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will AI be better at Captcha than an average human?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolve when someone demonstrates that a very hard-to-recognize image recognition CAPTCHA (one that humans can barely recognize) can nevertheless be consistently recognized by a freely available LLM.