Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035?
One-OffCienciaTecnologíaCripto8aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 61.4%
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 minutos
1 nov 24, 15:42 UTC1 ene 35, 4:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsReglas
The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.
- Demonstrating its factorisation with a general‑purpose quantum computer—one capable of running Shor’s algorithm (or an equivalent quantum‑factoring routine) at scale—would effectively break today’s RSA‑based public‑key cryptography.
- Resolution Criteria
- Evidence required – A peer‑reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal must show that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA‑2048 challenge number.
- Classical assistance – Limited classical pre‑ or post‑processing (e.g., compiling the circuit, verifying the output) is allowed, but the actual factorization step must be done by quantum hardware.
- Timing - The peer-reviewed paper’s publication date occurs before Jan 1, 2035 for the market to resolve YES.
