Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 20:15 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualSí 66.7%
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18
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado1 nov 24, 15:47 UTC1 ene 50, 4:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2075?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiReglas
The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.
- Demonstrating its factorisation with a general‑purpose quantum computer—one capable of running Shor’s algorithm (or an equivalent quantum‑factoring routine) at scale—would effectively break today’s RSA‑based public‑key cryptography.
- Resolution Criteria
- Evidence required – A peer‑reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal must show that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA‑2048 challenge number.
- Classical assistance – Limited classical pre‑ or post‑processing (e.g., compiling the circuit, verifying the output) is allowed, but the actual factorization step must be done by quantum hardware.
- Timing - The peer-reviewed paper’s publication date occurs before Jan 1, 2050 for the market to resolve YES.
