KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
Before 2040 64%Líder entre 4 opciones
Calidad del mercado
50 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
44,5 €
Liquidez
17,7 mil €
Liquidez mediaSpread
4.6 pt
Spread moderadoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 minutos
14 ago 25, 20:45 UTC1 ene 30, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
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KalshiReglas
If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:Physical Review XQuantum Science and TechnologyProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesPhysical Review AMIT Technology ReviewReutersAssociated PressBloomberg NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe New York TimesNature
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Mercados abiertos
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will the first useful quantum computer be developed??
- Kalshi cotiza Before 2040 al 64% a fecha de 10 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will the first useful quantum computer be developed??
- Está previsto que When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will the first useful quantum computer be developed??
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.