Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 89.9%
Pronosticadores
21
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado1 nov 24, 15:44 UTC1 ene 30, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiReglas
The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.
- Demonstrating its factorisation with a general‑purpose quantum computer—one capable of running Shor’s algorithm (or an equivalent quantum‑factoring routine) at scale—would effectively break today’s RSA‑based public‑key cryptography.
- Resolution Criteria
- Evidence required – A peer‑reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal must show that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA‑2048 challenge number.
- Classical assistance – Limited classical pre‑ or post‑processing (e.g., compiling the circuit, verifying the output) is allowed, but the actual factorization step must be done by quantum hardware.
- Timing - The peer-reviewed paper’s publication date occurs before Jan 1, 2030 for the market to resolve YES.
Mercados abiertos
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $73,750 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
+77 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,1 M €
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- 160-179+19.0pt57%
- 180-199-5.5pt35%
- 200-219-6.8pt5%
+23 resultados más
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
- $68,500 or above98%
+47 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 319,9 mil €
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- New York City+68.0pt99%
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- Volumen total
LIMITLESSAmazon (AMZN) Up or Down - Daily
- No50.6%
- Yes49.4%
- Volumen total
- 217,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 215,2 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 90% a fecha de 10 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030??
- Está previsto que Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.