Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 61.3%
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado12 nov 24, 4:19 UTC2 ene 45, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
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KalshiWill a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.
- Demonstrating its factorisation with a general‑purpose quantum computer—one capable of running Shor’s algorithm (or an equivalent quantum‑factoring routine) at scale—would effectively break today’s RSA‑based public‑key cryptography.
- Resolution Criteria
- Evidence required – A peer‑reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal must show that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA‑2048 challenge number.
- Classical assistance – Limited classical pre‑ or post‑processing (e.g., compiling the circuit, verifying the output) is allowed, but the actual factorization step must be done by quantum hardware.
- Timing - The peer-reviewed paper’s publication date occurs before Jan 1, 2045 for the market to resolve YES.
Mercados abiertos
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 802,6 mil €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volumen total
- 736,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 585,6 mil €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 resultados más
- Volumen total
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- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 61% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045??
- Está previsto que Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2045.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.