Pronóstico comunitario actual
2025-2034 30.7%+0.2ptLíder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
22
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+0.2 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 minutos
23 mar 25, 14:56 UTC1 ene 01, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
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PolymarketReglas
The RSA-2048 challenge number is a 617-digit semiprime published by RSA Laboratories.
- Factoring it with a general-purpose quantum computer (i.e., one that runs Shor’s algorithm at scale) would mark the end of today’s form of public-key cryptography.
- Resolution criteria
- Evidence required – A peer-reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal showing that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA-2048 challenge number.
- Quantum-computer build timing – The bracket corresponding to the year in which the demonstration is published resolves "YES" and the market closes immediately.
- Example: if the paper is dated 2035, the 2035-2039 bracket resolves "YES" and all others resolve "NO" based on the publication date.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 2025-2034 al 31% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number??
- Está previsto que In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2101.
- ¿Cómo se liquida In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The RSA-2048 challenge number is a 617-digit semiprime published by RSA Laboratories.