Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 62.2%
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 minutos
20 sept 26, 15:58 UTC30 sept 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsOpus 5.2 released in September?
Manifold MarketsNext Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Claude Sonnet released by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Anthropic officially releases a new model in the "Sonnet" tier during the month of September 2026 (between September 1, 2026, and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- To qualify for a YES resolution, the model must meet the following conditions:
- It must be officially announced by Anthropic or listed as a generally available or publicly accessible to claude.ai, Claude Code, or API users.
- It must explicitly feature "Sonnet" in its official name (e.g., Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 6).
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+72.4pt74.5%
- September 23+11.6pt13.7%
- September 24+3.8pt4.9%
+13 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 269,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 199,9 mil €
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-4.0pt27%
- Mark Carney-3.0pt19%
- Pope Leo XIV-7.0pt9%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,3 M €
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 4,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 107,5 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt70.3%
- ChatGPT-0.9pt13.9%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,3 M €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.2pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 resultados más
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 85 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 65,3 mil €
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 62.2% a fecha de 22 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026??
- Está previsto que Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? se resuelva el 30 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria