Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5)
IAOne-Off4aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 79.9%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 51 minutos
Retrasado8 abr 25, 19:50 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Prediction #5 from: My Takeaways From AI 2027 - by Scott Alexander
- Must be a state of the art model, used by millions of people, not just a research project.
- Update 2025-07-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they will likely defer to Scott Alexander's interpretation if he writes about this topic in the future.
- Otherwise, the guiding principle is that the market will resolve to YES if humans are unable to follow the thinking process the AI is using.
- The creator stated this would likely include cases where:
- The AI's thinking is a mixture of modalities (e.g., image, video, and text).
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5)?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 80% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5)?
- Está previsto que Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5) se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5)?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Prediction #5 from: My Takeaways From AI 2027 - by Scott Alexander