¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Any SOTA AI model uses human-understandable thinking medium at the end of 2028??

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 71.2% a fecha de 25 de octubre de 2026.

Any SOTA AI model uses human-understandable thinking medium at the end of 2028?

One-OffIA2a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 71.2%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 2 horas

Desactualizado

22 oct 25, 13:43 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

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Must be a state of the art model (probably in the top 8), used by millions of people, not just a research project.

The guiding principle is that the market will resolve to YES if humans are able to follow the thinking process the AI is using.
This would likely include cases where:
The AI's thinking is a mixture of modalities (e.g., image, video, and text), as long as they're comprehensible to humans.
This would not include cases where the AI mostly thinks in "neuralese" latent space vectors, recurrent activations, incomprehensible image/video streams, or the model thinks in text but the text switches languages, uses whitespace meaningfully &c.
If in doubt I'll make the call.