¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 71.6% a fecha de 26 de octubre de 2026.

Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029?

IAOne-Off2a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 71.6%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 15 horas

Desactualizado

4 may 24, 18:39 UTC2 ene 29, 7:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

The Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) is the standard neural network design in modern deep learning.

If a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model is confirmed to be created without the use of MLPs by 2029, this market resolves YES, otherwise NO.
Qualifying models
To qualify, a model must not use Multi-Layer Perceptrons at all.
For the purposes of this market, an MLP is a series of 3 or more layers of nodes, where the nodes in each middle layer take a weighted sum of the outputs of the previous layer, apply a nonlinearity, and output the result.
One example of a non-MLP neural network design is Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (see this market, which this one is heavily based on).