¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a human walk on Mars before strong AGI is achieved??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 56.2% a fecha de 8 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a human walk on Mars before strong AGI is achieved??

Está previsto que Will a human walk on Mars before strong AGI is achieved? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2033.

¿Cómo se liquida Will a human walk on Mars before strong AGI is achieved??

Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Mars as determined by general societal consensus

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Will a human walk on Mars before strong AGI is achieved?

One-OffEspacio IA6a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 56.2%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 9 horas

Desactualizado

6 may 24, 13:49 UTC1 ene 33, 4:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

Mars as determined by general societal consensus

AGI as determined by Manifold's official market and/or general societal consensus
Market extended until either happens

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Will a human walk on Mars before strong AGI is achieved?

Will a human walk on Mars before strong AGI is achieved?

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Preguntas frecuentes

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Mercados abiertos

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

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Which company has the best AI model end of November?

#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

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Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?