Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 95.7%
Pronosticadores
30
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado6 ene 26, 22:37 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will any country leave NATO by which date?
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PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- As of 2026, no member state has rescinded their membership, but this market resolves YES if any NATO member country formally notifies the United States of withdrawal under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty before December 31, 2026.
- A country must send the United States a "notice of denunciation," which the U.S. would then pass on to the other Allies, and after a one-year waiting period, the country would be out.
- The market resolves YES if such notice is formally issued during 2026, regardless of when the one-year waiting period expires.
- Resolution will be verified through official NATO announcements or statements from the withdrawing country's government.
- Considerations
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a country leave NATO this year??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 96% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a country leave NATO this year??
- Está previsto que Will a country leave NATO this year? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will a country leave NATO this year??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria