¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will 10% of San Francisco die in any year from disaster, before 2035??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 96.6% a fecha de 26 de octubre de 2026.

Will 10% of San Francisco die in any year from disaster, before 2035?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 96.6%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 2 horas

Desactualizado

31 may 23, 16:03 UTC1 feb 35, 4:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

Some examples of disasters:

-Nuclear strike
-Infrastructure collapse, such as from a solar flare
If a disaster affects the city of San Francisco, we'll refer to the total deaths attributed during the calendar year.
We then calculate that as a percent of the prior population.
If it's 10% or more, we resolve Yes.