Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Tyler Cowen 100%Líder entre 28 opciones
Pronosticadores
15
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 20 horas
Desactualizado27 ene 25, 0:54 UTC31 dic 30, 21:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Please add answers!
- The term AGI is ambiguous and subjective.
- I want to try to figure out timelines by when prominent people in AI subjectively think we have achieved it.
- Resolution Criteria:
- Each person resolves YES if by EOY 2030, they state publicly that they believe AGI has been achieved.
- This need not refer to any AI system they are working on themselves, but any AI system in the world.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volumen total
- 241,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 128 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 349,4 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Tyler Cowen al 100% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030??
- Está previsto que Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Please add answers!