Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSeptember 2025 100%Líder entre 15 opciones
Pronosticadores
26
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+15.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado16 sept 25, 3:36 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
100%
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100%
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100%
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- Each month option resolves YES if, during that calendar month (UTC), at least one of Google, OpenAI, or Anthropic makes a new large language model (LLM) publicly available beyond a private waitlist in any of: their consumer apps (Gemini/ChatGPT/Claude) or developer platforms/APIs (OpenAI API, Google AI Studio/Vertex AI, Anthropic API/AWS Bedrock/Vertex AI). “Publicly available” includes GA or an open preview accessible without individual approval.
- If availability and announcement fall in different months, use the first month of broad availability.
- “New LLM” = a newly named model or sub‑variant with a distinct model identifier added to the company’s official model/catalog (e.g., Gemini 2.5 Flash‑Lite, Claude Sonnet 4, OpenAI o3/o4‑mini/GPT‑4.5).
- Routine snapshot updates, pricing/context changes, UI features, or pure renames do not count.
- Anonymous or cloaked models do not count - if a cloaked model such as Horizon Alpha were released in one month and a company publicly claims it in the next, this market would count that model as released in the second month.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 132,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,3 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 322,4 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Which months will Google OR OpenAI OR Anthropic release a new LLM?
- Manifold Markets cotiza September 2025 al 100% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Which months will Google OR OpenAI OR Anthropic release a new LLM?
- Está previsto que Which months will Google OR OpenAI OR Anthropic release a new LLM se resuelva el 30 de noviembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Which months will Google OR OpenAI OR Anthropic release a new LLM?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria