Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableEste mercado se resolvió: Opus (99%)
Resuelto: 24 jul 2026, 17:03
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Pronóstico comunitario actualOpus 99%+7.1ptLíder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
23
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 27 días
Desactualizado3 jul 26, 4:3224 jul 26, 17:03
Cronología de Probabilidad
Opus99%
Haiku0.4%
Mythos0.2%
A previously unreleased tier under a new name0.2%
A new checkpoint of Fable or Sonnet with updated version number (e.g. 5.1)0.2%
99%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
Reglas
— The model must be released publicly to qualify, i.e. if Opus 5 gets a limited release (similar to what's been going on with Mythos and GPT-5.6) followed by a GA release of Haiku, the latter will be considered as having been released first.
- — The existing version(s) of Mythos will qualify if released into general access before any other qualifying model.
- — Any 4.x versions, in case Anthropic decides to continue that branch for some reason, will not qualify.
- The most recent release as of this market's creation date is Sonnet 5, which is the third release in the Claude 5 series following Mythos 5 and Fable 5.
