Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 2:12 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualBefore 2050 60%Líder entre 11 opciones
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado20 sept 25, 16:40 UTC31 dic 28, 17:31 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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When I refer to a "multiple-choice market", I mean one where the probability of all choices always add up to 100%.
- This also includes at least some forms of date and numeric markets.
- Right now, all mana invested in this type of market remains tied up until the winning choice has been selected.
- It would be far more optimal for prediction accuracy and mana management if guaranteed-wrong options could be resolved NO as they become guaranteed-wrong.
- The appropriate date ranges in this market will resolve YES at the time that a change implementing this gets deployed on the site.
- I may bet YES in this market in order to incentivize myself to accomplish this, but I will not bet NO (beyond selling YES shares).
