¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will I create a PR to allow resolving options in multiple-choice markets to NO??

Manifold Markets cotiza Before 2050 al 56.7% a fecha de 2 de noviembre de 2026.

When will I create a PR to allow resolving options in multiple-choice markets to NO?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibrado

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Before 2050 56.7%

Líder entre 11 opciones

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Cambio 7d

0.0 pts

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 6 horas

Desactualizado

16 sept 25, 17:22 UTC2 ene 27, 18:06 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

When I refer to a "multiple-choice market", I mean one where the probability of all choices always add up to 100%.

This also includes at least some forms of date and numeric markets.
Right now, all mana invested in this type of market remains tied up until the winning choice has been selected.
It would be far more optimal for prediction accuracy and mana management if guaranteed-wrong options could be resolved NO as they become guaranteed-wrong.
A "PR" refers to a GitHub Pull Request, and it is the mechanism by which code changes to manifold are currently proposed.
This market will resolve based on whether/when I submit an as-described change to Manifold, regardless of whether it's accepted or whether the exact mechanism is a GitHub PR.