When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality?
IAOne-Off3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualAfter 2035 68.7%Líder entre 8 opciones
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Desactualizado24 feb 25, 0:58 UTC1 ene 27, 23:59 UTC
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Inspired by this Twitter/X thread, but others have expressed similar concerns.
- "WMD" is here defined as a nuclear, radiological, chemical, or biological weapon.
- The attack does not need to be successful, just result in at least one death (e.g. the aspiring terrorist accidentally gasses themselves.)
- "Unrestricted" is here defined as any LLM that will help with planning a WMD attack, whether because it was not designed to refuse such a request, was verbally persuaded/jailbroken to do so, was fine-tuned by someone to do so, etc. I'll try to be generous regarding whether access to the LLM "resulted in" the attack.
- Unless it's extremely clear that the perpetrator(s) could have accomplished it on their own (e.g. a professional chemist using an LLM to speed up ordering glassware for their chemical weapons project), any use of an LLM will resolve YES.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality??
- Manifold Markets cotiza After 2035 al 69% a fecha de 21 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality??
- Está previsto que When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Inspired by this Twitter/X thread, but others have expressed similar concerns.