Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 3:53 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
2025 100%Líder entre 6 opciones
2025 100%Pronosticadores
29
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado18 ene 24, 1:09 UTC2 ene 30, 0:35 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
What years will AlphaGeometry win IMO bronze (or higher)?
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PolymarketReglas
A year resolves yes, if any AI program can get enough points to win at least bronze on the International Mathematics Olympiad of that year.
- The years are resolved completely independent of each other.
- If a neutral party (e.g. from the AIMO prize) judges AI performance in this respect, I will defer to them.
- Otherwise, I will judge myself.
- If I judge, my main requirements are that the AI was written and trained (if applicable) before the IMO, though it need not be released before the IMO.
- The AI should produce a proof that can be checked within a reasonable time by either a human or a proof assistant (e.g. Lean).
