¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de What year will the majority of new cars sold in Europe be "battery electric" (BEV)??

Manifold Markets cotiza 2030 or later al 95.6% a fecha de 25 de octubre de 2026.

What year will the majority of new cars sold in Europe be "battery electric" (BEV)?

EuropaOne-Off4a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

2030 or later 95.6%

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Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Cambio 7d

0.0 pts

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 9 horas

Desactualizado

30 ago 22, 20:43 UTC31 dic 30, 22:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

This resolves according to the number published by ACEA, like this one: https://www.acea.auto/figure/fuel-types-of-new-passenger-cars-in-eu/

In 2021 the number for BEV was 9.1%, up from 1% in 2018, 1.9% in 2019 and 5.4% in 2020.
The EU have decided to ban the sale of new fossil fueled cars from 2035 so presumably that will be the last possible year this can resolve to, but considering how fast BEVs have risen it may well be a majority much earlier.
UPDATE: The number for 2022 was 12.1%
The number for 2023 was 14.6%
The number for 2024 was 13.6%