What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 24 months?
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Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual70-79% 39.3%+0.6ptLíder entre 7 opciones
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Desactualizado15 mar 24, 21:17 UTC2 dic 26, 7:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
The 12 month phase 3 data indicates 75% vaccine efficacy of R21 in annual malaria sites in children at 12 months after the first dose was delivered.
- Phase 2b data at a 42 month timepoint showed 71% efficacy after four total doses (Abstract here, #6949).
- Resolves upon publication of peer-reviewed data from the R21 team at Oxford (expected to be before September 1st, 2025).
- Vaccine efficacy is defined as the primary endpoint for time to clinical malaria in seasonal sites, as defined in the paper linked above.
- 1Day Sooner has an R21 Status Report available here that may be useful.
- More malaria-related questions can be found on our Manifold account here.
