Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualDoesn't pass in Senate 30%+15.7ptLíder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
15
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+15.7 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 minutos
3 sept 26, 16:5331 dic 27, 23:59
Tendencias
Reglas
Bernie (& Greg Casar) just announced the intention to introduce a bill that would ban the development of ASI. https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-casar-introduce-legislation-to-ban-artificial-superintelligence-and-temporarily-pause-advanced-ai-development/
- Clarifications:
- I mean specifically a bill introduced by these two people, with very similar aims as that released in the summary: https://www.sanders.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/Ban-Artificial-Superintelligence-Act-Release-Summary.pdf
- If there is a clear answer before Dec 31 2027, I will resolve then
- If this exact bill fails, but a very similar one draws inspiration, I will reoslve based on the original bill
- For this market, I care only about the bill's continuity as defined by its tracking number.
Mercados abiertos
Politics
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance-3.0pt50%
- Marco Rubio17%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 600,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 2,9 M €
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-1.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.7pt13%
- Jon Ossoff11%
+49 resultados más
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez20%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+48 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1094,6 M €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt53.4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.9pt42.7%
- Renan Santos-0.6pt1.9%
+16 resultados más
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.5pt36.8%
- Édouard Philippe29.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.7%
+38 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.8%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.8%
- Gavin Newsom12.9%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 181 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 390,2 mil €
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Brazil Presidential election winner?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- North Carolina Senate winner?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de What will happen to Bernie's Proposed "Ban ASI" Bill??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Doesn't pass in Senate al 30% a fecha de 4 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve What will happen to Bernie's Proposed "Ban ASI" Bill??
- Está previsto que What will happen to Bernie's Proposed "Ban ASI" Bill? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida What will happen to Bernie's Proposed "Ban ASI" Bill??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Bernie (& Greg Casar) just announced the intention to introduce a bill that would ban the development of ASI. https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-casar-introduce-legislation-to-ban-artificial-superintelligence-and-temporarily-pause-advanced-ai-development/