Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualHas a microphone 99%Líder entre 23 opciones
Pronosticadores
40
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado22 may 25, 15:54 UTC31 dic 26, 16:49 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the OpenAI/Jony Ive device have a screen?
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PolymarketReglas
OpenAI acquired Jony Ive's io to build some kind of AI device.
- What will be true of the first device they release? This refers to whatever the first hardware product OpenAI + io release.
- If they release multiple devices simultaneously, each answer resolves YES if the answer is true of any of the devices.
- Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the 'Designed to be worn on head' answer:
- Earbuds will be considered as 'worn on head'.
- Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market close date will be extended until the device is released or confirmed as cancelled.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 63,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 63,6 mil €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.8pt68.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt15.7%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,5 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.9pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 27,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 27,4 mil €
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Has a microphone al 99% a fecha de 15 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device??
- Está previsto que What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: OpenAI acquired Jony Ive's io to build some kind of AI device.