Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualIt will be released by January 2027 100%Líder entre 9 opciones
Pronosticadores
42
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+24.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado25 mar 26, 18:11 UTC31 dic 26, 19:10 UTC
Tendencias
100%
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?
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PolymarketReglas
Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use highly credible reporting (e.g., The Information) and signals like OpenAI employees posting potato emojis to identify which model is "Spud".
- The market is primarily intended to let people bet on a leaked codename, and may not necessarily close/resolve.
- Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Many or all of the sub-questions in this market may never resolve if sufficient evidence does not emerge to confirm which model is "Spud" or its properties.
Mercados abiertos
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+9.0pt80.2%
- Yes-9.0pt19.8%
- Volumen total
- 15,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,1 M €
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-5.0pt53%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-11.0pt53%
- Before Jul 1, 2027+15.0pt39%
+7 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-6.0pt81%
+9 resultados más
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- December 31,-3.0pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 resultados más
POLYMARKETWhich Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Jacky Rosen+0.5pt38%
- Kirsten Gillibrand+9.0pt37%
- Ruben Gallego-14.5pt35%
+12 resultados más
KALSHIHow many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Above 50-7.0pt54%
- Above 55-22.0pt42%
- Above 58-8.0pt38%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for Clarity Act cloture?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
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Criptos relacionadas
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model??
- Manifold Markets cotiza It will be released by January 2027 al 100% a fecha de 15 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model??
- Está previsto que What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use highly credible reporting (e.g., The Information) and signals like OpenAI employees posting potato emojis to identify which model is "Spud".