What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?
One-OffPolíticaPolítica de EE. UU.ElecciónElecciones de mitad de mandato de EE. UU. 20268d
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 4:54 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Democratic House and Senate 66.3%Líder entre 5 opciones
Democratic House and Senate 66.3%Pronosticadores
110
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+5.9 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado15 nov 24, 22:37 UTC4 nov 26, 5:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiBalance of power after the 2028 elections
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolves to whichever party's caucuses are elected to majorities in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.
- A majority in the House is defined as having more than half of the voting Representatives, and a majority in the Senate is defined as having more than half of the Senators, or exactly half and the vice president.
- Independents or members of third parties who caucus with another party are considered part of that party for the sake of determining the majority.
- Following the 2024 election, there are two such independents remaining in the Senate, both of whom caucus with the Democrats.
- Independents or third party members who do not caucus with either major party will not be considered a part of either party - thus it is in theory possible that neither party could have the majority in one of the chambers.
- In that case, the market will resolve to "Other" or an option stating that no party has the majority in the chamber if such an option has been added.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
- También disponible en Polymarket — Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · Democrats Sweep 65%
- También disponible en Kalshi — 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? · Democrats sweep 63%
- También disponible en PredictIt — What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 election? · Dem. House & Senate 64%
- También disponible en Limitless — Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms · Democrats Sweep 66%
- También disponible en Manifold Markets — Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?
